[ale] [OT] Psychology of Denial about Climate Change

Sat Dec 12 23:37:29 EST 2009

A blog post from The Economist is quite good at pointing out the fact that
"mere mortals" can't do the statistics it takes to make the raw data make
sense over a longer period than a few years or decades.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2009/12/trust_scientists

It also points out that "cherry picking" one data set to "prove" the "fraud"
of AGW is just a waste of everyone's time.

On Thu, Dec 10, 2009 at 11:00 AM, William Fragakis <william at fragakis.com>wrote:

> No worries, Doug. We can put all those people where there were once
> glaciers.
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
>
> Malthus may not be at work in your neighborhood but he's been definitely
> busy in some parts of Africa. You might want to read up on some of the
> social issues (specifically monstrous overcrowding and lack of farmland)
> that led to the Rwanda genocide.
>
> And thanks to those links to the peer reviewed journals, Time and
> Newsweek.
> Time includes this quote "
> "Some scientists like Donald Oilman, chief of the National Weather
> Service's long-range-prediction group, think that the cooling trend may
> be only temporary. "
>
> Which may well be why the article's title includes a question mark. What
> that article does not address is increasing CO2 levels which is the
> cause of concern among many. (or if it did, I missed it.)
>
> But, I admit, I'm not a scientist by education but rather an economist
> where we learn concepts such as expected value. And as Jim K. points
> out, this again, is what concerns many of us. AGW may well be turn out
> not to be climatically significant. However, the cost to future
> generations if it is, may well be catastrophic, not as portrayed in the
> movies, but the grinding real-life scenario of famine, war, etc. (Again,
> see Rwanda.)
>
> By analogy, the probability in any one year of an asteroid of
> significant size hitting earth is remote. You are better off, I'd guess,
> buying a powerball ticket. But if one does hit, the consequences are
> enormous. That's why we devote money to trying to figure out what to do
> if we spot one coming.
>
> You may be willing to gamble on the welfare of future generations that
> AGW is a myth but for many of us, the expected value is much too great
> even if you assume the probabilities small.
>
> Lastly, an old saw in the markets is that trees don't grow to the sky.
> Just because Malthus hasn't been right, yet, doesn't mean he won't be.
> Again, don't assume you'll see the effect universally but locally.*
> There are many parts of the world today that struggle to feed
> themselves. In the rest of the world, we operate on a fine line of
> feeding everyone assuming everything goes to plan. I'd not want to see
> the effects if an Indonesian volcano gave us another year without summer
> as happened in the early 1800s.
>
> Regards,
> William
>
> *quoting your wikipedia article on Malthusian Catastrophe:
> The Malthusian catastrophe appears to have been temporarily averted in
> Spain, although the Neo-Malthusian theory argues that the situation is
> only temporary; on the other hand, a significant part of population of
> Nigeria lives near subsistence levels.
>
> David Pimentel and Ron Nielsen, working independently, determined that
> the human population as a whole has passed the numerical point where all
> can live in comfort, and that we have entered a stage where many of the
> world's citizens and future generations are trapped in misery.[7] There
> is evidence that a catastrophe is underway as of at least the 1990s; for
> example, by the year 2000, children in developing countries were dying
> at the rate of approximately 11,000,000 per annum from strictly
> preventable diseases.[8][9] This data suggests that by the standard of
> misery, the catastrophe is underway. The term 'misery' can generally be
> construed as: high infant mortality, low standards of sanitation,
> malnutrition, inadequate drinking water, widespread diseases, war, and
> political unrest.
>
>
>
> On Thu, 2009-12-10 at 09:58 -0500, Doug McNash wrote:
> > The sky is falling, the sky is falling....
> >
> > I thought the consensus is that we are heading towards an ice age.
> >
> > "Science: Another Ice Age?" Time  June 24, 1974
> >     http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html
> >
> > "The Cooling World" Newsweek, April 28, 1975
> >     http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm
> >
> > Reminds me of another fairy tale - Goldilocks.
> >
> > The Malthusian Catastrophe (population explosion) also has not occurred
> yet even though it keeps getting revised.
> >
> >     http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe
> >
> > As for the rest of your screed, I would suggest you should double up on
> your meds!
> >
> > (Head down - headed for my bunker now - where I will rape the planet and
> no one will hear it scream)
> >
> >     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4XhhTF7vRM
> >
> > Peace on Earth, Purity of Essence
> > --
> > doug mcnash
> >
> > ---- aaron <aaron at pd.org> wrote:
> > > The ongoing exchange on Climate Change has been amusing and very
> > > revealing about the incredible strengths of scientific method and
> > > peer review.  It has reinforced my certainty that this is a problem
> > > that could affect the survival of our species and is something we
> > > should clearly be addressing with heavy investments in research
> > > and potential sustainable solutions.
> > >
> > > The simple, well documented reality is that the ratios of greenhouse
> > > gasses in the atmosphere are escalating rapidly due to the activities
> > > of human beings and their use of fossil fuels. Increasing greenhouse
> > > gasses will inevitably raise planetary temperature. The rate of human
> > > population growth is also out of control and continues to escalate,
> > > so the damage can only get worse from here. Solutions for stemming
> > > the increase of human population and demand for energy, as well as
> > > for converting to less toxic and more renewable energy sources, will
> > > need to happen in tandem if we are to avert disastrous consequences.
> > >
> > > The discussion also leaves me in awe that so many normally rational
> > > people can be so easily manipulated by the corporate welfare state
> > > propaganda machine and whipped into an extremist, rabid and even
> > > suicidal frenzy of denial on this kind of issue.  The hate zombies
> > > serve their blood sucking overlords well, assuring that the glutinous,
> > > greed driven, unsustainable exploitation of the planet's resources and
> > > the rape of the compliant masses by the ultra pig elite will
> > > continue unabated until it all comes crashing down on us (but not
> > > them) in massive global catastrophes.  The "Cap and Trade"
> > > delusion is a great example of the level of suicidal denial that
> > > the hate zombies will buy into -- a corporapist scheme to provide
> > > the biggest of the ultra pigs with payola permits to poison the
> > > world's populace without any accountability or consequence --
> > > yeah, sure, that's a GREAT deal for all us common folk!
> > >
> > > The article linked below attempts to explain the psychology of
> > > this self delusion and denial, but it still doesn't forgive the
> > > shear suicidal stupidity of it. Especially knowing that most of
> > > these screaming hate the government (and thus, hate yourself)
> > > denial freaks are the same clan of rabid zombies that have sat in
> > > spineless silence through decades of massive deficit tax increases
> > > imposed on them to fund insane and continual escalations of the
> > > U.S. war and torture death machine industries. They can magically
> > > rationalize that it's OK to massively bloat and militarize the
> > > government and destroy civil rights and democracy and massively
> > > inflate the tax burden on us, our children and our children's
> > > children so long as it's being done to support imperialist invasions
> > > and occupations of foreign lands where we murder the brown people
> > > there, steal their nation's resources, and let the ultra pigs claim
> > > ownership of it all.
> > >
> > > <http://tinyurl.com/psychofdenial>
> > >
> > >
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-- 
-- 
James P. Kinney III
Actively in pursuit of Life, Liberty and Happiness
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