A blog post from The Economist is quite good at pointing out the fact that "mere mortals" can't do the statistics it takes to make the raw data make sense over a longer period than a few years or decades.<br>
<br><a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2009/12/trust_scientists">http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2009/12/trust_scientists</a><br><br>It also points out that "cherry picking" one data set to "prove" the "fraud" of AGW is just a waste of everyone's time.<br>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Dec 10, 2009 at 11:00 AM, William Fragakis <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:william@fragakis.com">william@fragakis.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">
No worries, Doug. We can put all those people where there were once<br>
glaciers.<br>
<br>
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850</a><br>
<br>
Malthus may not be at work in your neighborhood but he's been definitely<br>
busy in some parts of Africa. You might want to read up on some of the<br>
social issues (specifically monstrous overcrowding and lack of farmland)<br>
that led to the Rwanda genocide.<br>
<br>
And thanks to those links to the peer reviewed journals, Time and<br>
Newsweek.<br>
Time includes this quote "<br>
"Some scientists like Donald Oilman, chief of the National Weather<br>
Service's long-range-prediction group, think that the cooling trend may<br>
be only temporary. "<br>
<br>
Which may well be why the article's title includes a question mark. What<br>
that article does not address is increasing CO2 levels which is the<br>
cause of concern among many. (or if it did, I missed it.)<br>
<br>
But, I admit, I'm not a scientist by education but rather an economist<br>
where we learn concepts such as expected value. And as Jim K. points<br>
out, this again, is what concerns many of us. AGW may well be turn out<br>
not to be climatically significant. However, the cost to future<br>
generations if it is, may well be catastrophic, not as portrayed in the<br>
movies, but the grinding real-life scenario of famine, war, etc. (Again,<br>
see Rwanda.)<br>
<br>
By analogy, the probability in any one year of an asteroid of<br>
significant size hitting earth is remote. You are better off, I'd guess,<br>
buying a powerball ticket. But if one does hit, the consequences are<br>
enormous. That's why we devote money to trying to figure out what to do<br>
if we spot one coming.<br>
<br>
You may be willing to gamble on the welfare of future generations that<br>
AGW is a myth but for many of us, the expected value is much too great<br>
even if you assume the probabilities small.<br>
<br>
Lastly, an old saw in the markets is that trees don't grow to the sky.<br>
Just because Malthus hasn't been right, yet, doesn't mean he won't be.<br>
Again, don't assume you'll see the effect universally but locally.*<br>
There are many parts of the world today that struggle to feed<br>
themselves. In the rest of the world, we operate on a fine line of<br>
feeding everyone assuming everything goes to plan. I'd not want to see<br>
the effects if an Indonesian volcano gave us another year without summer<br>
as happened in the early 1800s.<br>
<br>
Regards,<br>
William<br>
<br>
*quoting your wikipedia article on Malthusian Catastrophe:<br>
The Malthusian catastrophe appears to have been temporarily averted in<br>
Spain, although the Neo-Malthusian theory argues that the situation is<br>
only temporary; on the other hand, a significant part of population of<br>
Nigeria lives near subsistence levels.<br>
<br>
David Pimentel and Ron Nielsen, working independently, determined that<br>
the human population as a whole has passed the numerical point where all<br>
can live in comfort, and that we have entered a stage where many of the<br>
world's citizens and future generations are trapped in misery.[7] There<br>
is evidence that a catastrophe is underway as of at least the 1990s; for<br>
example, by the year 2000, children in developing countries were dying<br>
at the rate of approximately 11,000,000 per annum from strictly<br>
preventable diseases.[8][9] This data suggests that by the standard of<br>
misery, the catastrophe is underway. The term 'misery' can generally be<br>
construed as: high infant mortality, low standards of sanitation,<br>
malnutrition, inadequate drinking water, widespread diseases, war, and<br>
political unrest.<br>
<div><div></div><div class="h5"><br>
<br>
<br>
On Thu, 2009-12-10 at 09:58 -0500, Doug McNash wrote:<br>
> The sky is falling, the sky is falling....<br>
><br>
> I thought the consensus is that we are heading towards an ice age.<br>
><br>
> "Science: Another Ice Age?" Time June 24, 1974<br>
> <a href="http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html" target="_blank">http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html</a><br>
><br>
> "The Cooling World" Newsweek, April 28, 1975<br>
> <a href="http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm" target="_blank">http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm</a><br>
><br>
> Reminds me of another fairy tale - Goldilocks.<br>
><br>
> The Malthusian Catastrophe (population explosion) also has not occurred yet even though it keeps getting revised.<br>
><br>
> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe</a><br>
><br>
> As for the rest of your screed, I would suggest you should double up on your meds!<br>
><br>
> (Head down - headed for my bunker now - where I will rape the planet and no one will hear it scream)<br>
><br>
> <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4XhhTF7vRM" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4XhhTF7vRM</a><br>
><br>
> Peace on Earth, Purity of Essence<br>
> --<br>
> doug mcnash<br>
><br>
> ---- aaron <<a href="mailto:aaron@pd.org">aaron@pd.org</a>> wrote:<br>
> > The ongoing exchange on Climate Change has been amusing and very<br>
> > revealing about the incredible strengths of scientific method and<br>
> > peer review. It has reinforced my certainty that this is a problem<br>
> > that could affect the survival of our species and is something we<br>
> > should clearly be addressing with heavy investments in research<br>
> > and potential sustainable solutions.<br>
> ><br>
> > The simple, well documented reality is that the ratios of greenhouse<br>
> > gasses in the atmosphere are escalating rapidly due to the activities<br>
> > of human beings and their use of fossil fuels. Increasing greenhouse<br>
> > gasses will inevitably raise planetary temperature. The rate of human<br>
> > population growth is also out of control and continues to escalate,<br>
> > so the damage can only get worse from here. Solutions for stemming<br>
> > the increase of human population and demand for energy, as well as<br>
> > for converting to less toxic and more renewable energy sources, will<br>
> > need to happen in tandem if we are to avert disastrous consequences.<br>
> ><br>
> > The discussion also leaves me in awe that so many normally rational<br>
> > people can be so easily manipulated by the corporate welfare state<br>
> > propaganda machine and whipped into an extremist, rabid and even<br>
> > suicidal frenzy of denial on this kind of issue. The hate zombies<br>
> > serve their blood sucking overlords well, assuring that the glutinous,<br>
> > greed driven, unsustainable exploitation of the planet's resources and<br>
> > the rape of the compliant masses by the ultra pig elite will<br>
> > continue unabated until it all comes crashing down on us (but not<br>
> > them) in massive global catastrophes. The "Cap and Trade"<br>
> > delusion is a great example of the level of suicidal denial that<br>
> > the hate zombies will buy into -- a corporapist scheme to provide<br>
> > the biggest of the ultra pigs with payola permits to poison the<br>
> > world's populace without any accountability or consequence --<br>
> > yeah, sure, that's a GREAT deal for all us common folk!<br>
> ><br>
> > The article linked below attempts to explain the psychology of<br>
> > this self delusion and denial, but it still doesn't forgive the<br>
> > shear suicidal stupidity of it. Especially knowing that most of<br>
> > these screaming hate the government (and thus, hate yourself)<br>
> > denial freaks are the same clan of rabid zombies that have sat in<br>
> > spineless silence through decades of massive deficit tax increases<br>
> > imposed on them to fund insane and continual escalations of the<br>
> > U.S. war and torture death machine industries. They can magically<br>
> > rationalize that it's OK to massively bloat and militarize the<br>
> > government and destroy civil rights and democracy and massively<br>
> > inflate the tax burden on us, our children and our children's<br>
> > children so long as it's being done to support imperialist invasions<br>
> > and occupations of foreign lands where we murder the brown people<br>
> > there, steal their nation's resources, and let the ultra pigs claim<br>
> > ownership of it all.<br>
> ><br>
> > <<a href="http://tinyurl.com/psychofdenial" target="_blank">http://tinyurl.com/psychofdenial</a>><br>
> ><br>
> ><br>
> > _______________________________________________<br>
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</div></div></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br>-- <br>James P. Kinney III<br>Actively in pursuit of Life, Liberty and Happiness <br><br>