[ale] [OT] Psychology of Denial about Climate Change

Lightner, Jeff jlightner at water.com
Thu Feb 25 08:53:58 EST 2010 

Funny - what made this thread get resurrected?  

The comment about Trinidadian Muslims amused me.   Those were the guys
that attempted (and failed) a coup attempt back around 1990/1991.  Maybe
they do drink but apparently they have some of the same ideas about
Muslim supremacy that some of the other Jihadists do.

Of course there are many that think the Bible prohibits alcohol to
though they never quite explain why Jesus would be turning water into
wine...

-----Original Message-----
From: ale-bounces at ale.org [mailto:ale-bounces at ale.org] On Behalf Of Jeff
Hubbs
Sent: Thursday, February 25, 2010 6:47 AM
To: Atlanta Linux Enthusiasts - Yes! We run Linux!
Subject: Re: [ale] [OT] Psychology of Denial about Climate Change

The popular media and those who feed into it seem to only talk about CO2

as it pertains to anthro climate change but it's my understanding that 
that the real elephants in the room aren't CO2 but methane and water 
vapor.  The tinfoil-hat part of me suspects that part of the reason you 
don't hear more about this is that methane concentrations are strongly 
affected by agriculture.  "Drive hybrid/electric cars" isn't as 
unpalatable a mantra as "eat less beef."  Also, methane is potentially 
subject to really ramping up as large expanses of long-frozen terrain 
thaw out and the otherwise mostly inert dead frozen vegetation 
decomposes.   More methane releases may be in store from the seafloor if

deep sea temps go up - and apparently those can have nasty effects on 
shipping and aviation.

On 2/24/10 10:53 PM, dabaron wrote:
> Yeah the best solution to climate change (*if* humans are actually
> responsible for any climate change which *may* be happening-  I have a
> real problem with a bunch of assholes who can't predict the weather a
> week from now in my little corner of the woods, trying to sell me on
the
> idea that they have the forecast for the whole planet years from now-
> especially when it's been proven they've cooked data.) is to move all
> the heavy industry and energy generation off-planet.
>
> I don't believe that warming the planet will really do anything to the
> planet itself- all that carbon dioxide we're releasing into the air
was
> there before- in the carboniferous period.  And even if we burn all
the
> carbon suitable for fuel most of the carbon that was in the air back
> then will still be locked in limestone deposits both above and below
the
> ocean.  The same factors which mediated the global temperature then
> (life) will mediate it again.
>
> I really doubt it would make any great impact on the human population,
> either.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, 2009-12-14 at 12:06 -0500, Dow_Hurst wrote:
>    
>> I'll jump back in with a comment:
>>
>> I would prefer we not cripple our economy in trying to prevent CO2
buildup or ozone depletion but work much harder at getting ourselves off
planet with a sustainable set of resources for the long term.  On the
way, we will figure out how to fix climate change if it is becoming
detrimental to human life.  If it isn't fixable by us then we would be
able to live off planet until the planet fixed itself.  We probably
don't have enough data to make any kind of real decision whether the
earth is increasing in temperature permanently or not.  This may be a
blip of warming before a major cool down.  A 100 years of concerted
effort to colonize the solar system and move toward a mission to the
stars would definitely produce technology we only dream of right now.
You never know, we might come up with a solution from what we learn
getting out into the solar system.  Hauling a bunch of ice asteroids to
Mars would a cool project.
>>
>> Best wishes,
>> Dow
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>>      
>>> From: Doug McNash<dmcnash at charter.net>
>>> Sent: Dec 14, 2009 11:21 AM
>>> To: Atlanta Linux Enthusiasts - Yes! We run Linux!<ale at ale.org>
>>> Subject: Re: [ale] [OT] Psychology of Denial about Climate Change
>>>
>>> Jim,
>>>
>>> I thought you declared and end to this?
>>> Nevertheless I will still play as long as there is no objection from
the list.
>>> ALE has a long tradition of OT threads, most of which I have found
educational and amusing in the past.
>>>
>>> So far as far as I have been able determine, the only provable fraud
has been been with the handling of the Briffa tree ring data.  The tree
ring measurements are used as a proxy for temperature for the recent
period before the invention of the thermometer.  But this proxy shows a
decrease in global temperature since 1960. Oops. Can't have that
muddying the waters.  What to do?  Well adding another data set of real
temps ("the trick") to the tree ring was one way to fix it. Applying a
"VERY ARTIFICIAL correction" (in briffa_sep98_d.pro) was another.  The
IPCC in AR4 report just cut the tree ring data graph line off past 1960
thereby "hiding the decline".
>>>
>>> I don't think that anyone needs advanced training to recognize the
problem with this kind of manipulation. (I have a degree in Math, which
probably moves me from "mere mortal" to "peasant with a pitchfork".)  I
believe most everyone on this list can recognize the problem with those
advanced statistical techniques. To paraphrase Martin Luther, you don't
need to be a priest.
>>>
>>> In science, the divergence of the tree ring data would have led to a
re-evaluation of at least the use of that proxy or at most the whole
climate model. It appears that the warmer community has too much
invested in the tree ring proxy to do either.
>>>
>>>
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1235395/SPECIAL-INVESTIGATION-Cl
imate-change-emails-row-deepens--Russians-admit-DID-send-them.html
>>>
>>> As for the Darwin station, there is obviously a problem with the
data set.
>>> IMHO it is a Red Herring some choose to chase.
>>>
>>> Returning to the underlying theme -
>>>
>>> Let us review the similarity of Climate Change to a Religious Cult.
>>>
>>> "Original Sin" = humans pollute the Earth
>>>
>>> "The Apocalyptic Vision" = Hurricanes, Ice caps melting, Sea level
rising, Polar bears dying, cats and dogs living together.
>>>
>>> "Climate Scientists" = Priesthood
>>>
>>> "Climate Change Denier" = Heretic and blasphemer
>>>
>>> "Anthropomorphic Global Warming" = Dogma
>>>
>>> "Peer review" = Orthodoxy
>>>
>>> "Repent and be Saved" = put on  sackcloth and ashes,  buy your
carbon credit indulgences from Pope Al Gore and Goldman Sachs
>>> (Carbon Credit markets were an Enron invention, don'tca know?)
>>>
>>> In support of this theme I found this creepy religious tract for
recruitment into the Climate Change Cult
>>>
>>>     http://www.futerra.co.uk/downloads/Sellthesizzle.pdf
>>>
>>>
>>> William,
>>>
>>> If we agree the Expected Value
>>>
>>>     Ev = Cost of Event x Probability of Event
>>>
>>> For example the Lottery pays out about 25 cents on the dollar
>>>
>>> 	Ev = $1.00 x 0.25 = 25 cents	
>>> 	
>>> What is the expected value calculation for AGW?
>>> What are the cites to the "peer reviewed" journal articles?
>>> (peer review seems to be the the new mantra)
>>>
>>> Extra credit.
>>> What is the "ideal global temperature"?
>>> (peer reviewed, of course)
>>>
>>> You seem to argue for adding a Fear term (The Apocalyptic Vision) to
the equation
>>>
>>>     Ev = (Cost^Fear) x (Probability) where Fear>  1
>>>
>>> Now we are talking "hockey stick" graphs.
>>> But it's not math or science, it's emotional manipulation.
>>>
>>> Besides it violates rule 1 of "The Rules of the Game"
>>>
>>>     http://www.futerra.co.uk/downloads/RulesOfTheGame.pdf
>>>
>>> Thank you for playing.
>>>
>>> I know I am preaching against the choir.
>>>
>>> --
>>> doug mcnash
>>>
>>> ---- Jim Kinney<jim.kinney at gmail.com>  wrote:
>>>        
>>>> A blog post from The Economist is quite good at pointing out the
fact that
>>>> "mere mortals" can't do the statistics it takes to make the raw
data make
>>>> sense over a longer period than a few years or decades.
>>>>
>>>>
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2009/12/trust_scientis
ts
>>>>
>>>> It also points out that "cherry picking" one data set to "prove"
the "fraud"
>>>> of AGW is just a waste of everyone's time.
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Dec 10, 2009 at 11:00 AM, William
Fragakis<william at fragakis.com>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>          
>>>>> No worries, Doug. We can put all those people where there were
once
>>>>> glaciers.
>>>>>
>>>>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
>>>>>
>>>>> Malthus may not be at work in your neighborhood but he's been
definitely
>>>>> busy in some parts of Africa. You might want to read up on some of
the
>>>>> social issues (specifically monstrous overcrowding and lack of
farmland)
>>>>> that led to the Rwanda genocide.
>>>>>
>>>>> And thanks to those links to the peer reviewed journals, Time and
>>>>> Newsweek.
>>>>> Time includes this quote "
>>>>> "Some scientists like Donald Oilman, chief of the National Weather
>>>>> Service's long-range-prediction group, think that the cooling
trend may
>>>>> be only temporary. "
>>>>>
>>>>> Which may well be why the article's title includes a question
mark. What
>>>>> that article does not address is increasing CO2 levels which is
the
>>>>> cause of concern among many. (or if it did, I missed it.)
>>>>>
>>>>> But, I admit, I'm not a scientist by education but rather an
economist
>>>>> where we learn concepts such as expected value. And as Jim K.
points
>>>>> out, this again, is what concerns many of us. AGW may well be turn
out
>>>>> not to be climatically significant. However, the cost to future
>>>>> generations if it is, may well be catastrophic, not as portrayed
in the
>>>>> movies, but the grinding real-life scenario of famine, war, etc.
(Again,
>>>>> see Rwanda.)
>>>>>
>>>>> By analogy, the probability in any one year of an asteroid of
>>>>> significant size hitting earth is remote. You are better off, I'd
guess,
>>>>> buying a powerball ticket. But if one does hit, the consequences
are
>>>>> enormous. That's why we devote money to trying to figure out what
to do
>>>>> if we spot one coming.
>>>>>
>>>>> You may be willing to gamble on the welfare of future generations
that
>>>>> AGW is a myth but for many of us, the expected value is much too
great
>>>>> even if you assume the probabilities small.
>>>>>
>>>>> Lastly, an old saw in the markets is that trees don't grow to the
sky.
>>>>> Just because Malthus hasn't been right, yet, doesn't mean he won't
be.
>>>>> Again, don't assume you'll see the effect universally but
locally.*
>>>>> There are many parts of the world today that struggle to feed
>>>>> themselves. In the rest of the world, we operate on a fine line of
>>>>> feeding everyone assuming everything goes to plan. I'd not want to
see
>>>>> the effects if an Indonesian volcano gave us another year without
summer
>>>>> as happened in the early 1800s.
>>>>>
>>>>> Regards,
>>>>> William
>>>>>
>>>>> *quoting your wikipedia article on Malthusian Catastrophe:
>>>>> The Malthusian catastrophe appears to have been temporarily
averted in
>>>>> Spain, although the Neo-Malthusian theory argues that the
situation is
>>>>> only temporary; on the other hand, a significant part of
population of
>>>>> Nigeria lives near subsistence levels.
>>>>>
>>>>> David Pimentel and Ron Nielsen, working independently, determined
that
>>>>> the human population as a whole has passed the numerical point
where all
>>>>> can live in comfort, and that we have entered a stage where many
of the
>>>>> world's citizens and future generations are trapped in misery.[7]
There
>>>>> is evidence that a catastrophe is underway as of at least the
1990s; for
>>>>> example, by the year 2000, children in developing countries were
dying
>>>>> at the rate of approximately 11,000,000 per annum from strictly
>>>>> preventable diseases.[8][9] This data suggests that by the
standard of
>>>>> misery, the catastrophe is underway. The term 'misery' can
generally be
>>>>> construed as: high infant mortality, low standards of sanitation,
>>>>> malnutrition, inadequate drinking water, widespread diseases, war,
and
>>>>> political unrest.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, 2009-12-10 at 09:58 -0500, Doug McNash wrote:
>>>>>            
>>>>>> The sky is falling, the sky is falling....
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I thought the consensus is that we are heading towards an ice
age.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> "Science: Another Ice Age?" Time  June 24, 1974
>>>>>>
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html
>>>>>>
>>>>>> "The Cooling World" Newsweek, April 28, 1975
>>>>>>      http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Reminds me of another fairy tale - Goldilocks.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The Malthusian Catastrophe (population explosion) also has not
occurred
>>>>>>              
>>>>> yet even though it keeps getting revised.
>>>>>            
>>>>>>      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe
>>>>>>
>>>>>> As for the rest of your screed, I would suggest you should double
up on
>>>>>>              
>>>>> your meds!
>>>>>            
>>>>>> (Head down - headed for my bunker now - where I will rape the
planet and
>>>>>>              
>>>>> no one will hear it scream)
>>>>>            
>>>>>>      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4XhhTF7vRM
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Peace on Earth, Purity of Essence
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> doug mcnash
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ---- aaron<aaron at pd.org>  wrote:
>>>>>>              
>>>>>>> The ongoing exchange on Climate Change has been amusing and very
>>>>>>> revealing about the incredible strengths of scientific method
and
>>>>>>> peer review.  It has reinforced my certainty that this is a
problem
>>>>>>> that could affect the survival of our species and is something
we
>>>>>>> should clearly be addressing with heavy investments in research
>>>>>>> and potential sustainable solutions.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The simple, well documented reality is that the ratios of
greenhouse
>>>>>>> gasses in the atmosphere are escalating rapidly due to the
activities
>>>>>>> of human beings and their use of fossil fuels. Increasing
greenhouse
>>>>>>> gasses will inevitably raise planetary temperature. The rate of
human
>>>>>>> population growth is also out of control and continues to
escalate,
>>>>>>> so the damage can only get worse from here. Solutions for
stemming
>>>>>>> the increase of human population and demand for energy, as well
as
>>>>>>> for converting to less toxic and more renewable energy sources,
will
>>>>>>> need to happen in tandem if we are to avert disastrous
consequences.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The discussion also leaves me in awe that so many normally
rational
>>>>>>> people can be so easily manipulated by the corporate welfare
state
>>>>>>> propaganda machine and whipped into an extremist, rabid and even
>>>>>>> suicidal frenzy of denial on this kind of issue.  The hate
zombies
>>>>>>> serve their blood sucking overlords well, assuring that the
glutinous,
>>>>>>> greed driven, unsustainable exploitation of the planet's
resources and
>>>>>>> the rape of the compliant masses by the ultra pig elite will
>>>>>>> continue unabated until it all comes crashing down on us (but
not
>>>>>>> them) in massive global catastrophes.  The "Cap and Trade"
>>>>>>> delusion is a great example of the level of suicidal denial that
>>>>>>> the hate zombies will buy into -- a corporapist scheme to
provide
>>>>>>> the biggest of the ultra pigs with payola permits to poison the
>>>>>>> world's populace without any accountability or consequence --
>>>>>>> yeah, sure, that's a GREAT deal for all us common folk!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The article linked below attempts to explain the psychology of
>>>>>>> this self delusion and denial, but it still doesn't forgive the
>>>>>>> shear suicidal stupidity of it. Especially knowing that most of
>>>>>>> these screaming hate the government (and thus, hate yourself)
>>>>>>> denial freaks are the same clan of rabid zombies that have sat
in
>>>>>>> spineless silence through decades of massive deficit tax
increases
>>>>>>> imposed on them to fund insane and continual escalations of the
>>>>>>> U.S. war and torture death machine industries. They can
magically
>>>>>>> rationalize that it's OK to massively bloat and militarize the
>>>>>>> government and destroy civil rights and democracy and massively
>>>>>>> inflate the tax burden on us, our children and our children's
>>>>>>> children so long as it's being done to support imperialist
invasions
>>>>>>> and occupations of foreign lands where we murder the brown
people
>>>>>>> there, steal their nation's resources, and let the ultra pigs
claim
>>>>>>> ownership of it all.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> <http://tinyurl.com/psychofdenial>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>>>> Ale mailing list
>>>>>>> Ale at ale.org
>>>>>>> http://mail.ale.org/mailman/listinfo/ale
>>>>>>> See JOBS, ANNOUNCE and SCHOOLS lists at
>>>>>>> http://mail.ale.org/mailman/listinfo
>>>>>>>                
>>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>>> Ale mailing list
>>>>>> Ale at ale.org
>>>>>> http://mail.ale.org/mailman/listinfo/ale
>>>>>> See JOBS, ANNOUNCE and SCHOOLS lists at
>>>>>> http://mail.ale.org/mailman/listinfo
>>>>>>              
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> Ale mailing list
>>>>> Ale at ale.org
>>>>> http://mail.ale.org/mailman/listinfo/ale
>>>>> See JOBS, ANNOUNCE and SCHOOLS lists at
>>>>> http://mail.ale.org/mailman/listinfo
>>>>>
>>>>>            
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -- 
>>>> -- 
>>>> James P. Kinney III
>>>> Actively in pursuit of Life, Liberty and Happiness
>>>>          
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Ale mailing list
>>> Ale at ale.org
>>> http://mail.ale.org/mailman/listinfo/ale
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>>>        
>>
>> No sig.
>>
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>>      
>
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