[ale] [OT] Psychology of Denial about Climate Change
Tim Watts
timtw at earthlink.net
Mon Dec 14 17:24:07 EST 2009
DOH! The carbon cycle. Of course! They like totally forgot to factor in
the carbon cycle in their models. Whoa! Quick, who has the email address
for the IPCC? Oh, this is B I G! Talk about game changers.
(See this is what I like most about the IT field. We learn that a little
knowledge is just fine so long as you have strong logical skills.)
On Mon, 2009-12-14 at 13:13 -0500, Greg Clifton wrote:
> Preach on Brother! I am with you, Doug. I too, have enjoyed & learned
> from the OT threads. FWIW, I have a degree in Botany and it seems
> irrefutably logical that the carbon content of all the fossil fuels we
> now consume was once atmospheric CO2. Surely everybody remembers the
> Carbon Cycle from physical science. I'm a bit rusty on my chemistry,
> but basically photosynthesis goes like this: 6(CO2) + 6(H2O) +
> Sunlight => 1(C6H12O6) (simple sugar) + 6(O2) - heat equivalent to the
> net energy increase of the various chemical bonds. Seems to me that
> the Carbon Cycle may be a much larger and longer term cycle than we
> have appreciated. Certainly weather does change and climate has also
> changed, if one is to believe the science supporting the various ice
> ages of prehistory. Also, certainly, man cannot be blamed for the past
> climatic changes. I for one am not willing to go back to the horse and
> buggy on the CHANCE that my carbon footprint may impact the future
> climate, without some HONEST, openly documented, convincing science to
> support the hypotheses. The current hot topic of climate-gate, greatly
> weakens the argument, in my mind.
>
> Furthermore, I heard some discussion on a recent radio show to the
> effect that science indicated that a rise in CO2 lagged behind a rise
> in temperature for previous global warming events. I didn't get the
> details, but if this were so, it would pretty well break the whole AGW
> hypotheses. How could such a thing happen? Well, organic reactions
> double in rate for every 20degree C rise in temp. So, if the global
> temp goes up, biologic breakdown of organic matter would also increase
> (think compost heap here). This is primarily why the topsoil in the
> rain forests is so thin, the high temperature and humidity causes
> rapid breakdown and allows rapid re-consumption of the organic matter.
> Basically, what would be topsoil in cooler areas is pretty much
> sequestered in living plants (and the animals that consume the plants
> & their fruits) in the canopy. So, increase the global temp and you
> get more CO2 as a result, not the causative agent.
>
> Additionally, Al Gore flying around in a very inefficient old private
> jet and living in a very inefficient 6000+ft2 house in TN, in addition
> to his other residences, while preaching the harm of CO2 emissions and
> stating that "the internal combustion engine is the [most dangerous]
> worst invention of man" (or something very like that in principle) and
> setting up a company to sell carbon credits to make himself richer is
> not putting the "Chicken Little" alarmist crowd in a good light. AG is
> one preacher who doesn't practice what he preaches and I find his
> hypocrisy and fear mongering particularly distasteful. He's "PLAYING
> ON OUR FEARS," to plagiarize a bit.
>
> I have more to say about cosmology, biology, teleology and
> eschatology, but I gotta get to work!
>
> GC
>
>
> On Mon, Dec 14, 2009 at 11:21 AM, Doug McNash <dmcnash at charter.net>
> wrote:
> Jim,
>
> I thought you declared and end to this?
> Nevertheless I will still play as long as there is no
> objection from the list.
> ALE has a long tradition of OT threads, most of which I have
> found educational and amusing in the past.
>
> So far as far as I have been able determine, the only provable
> fraud has been been with the handling of the Briffa tree ring
> data. The tree ring measurements are used as a proxy for
> temperature for the recent period before the invention of the
> thermometer. But this proxy shows a decrease in global
> temperature since 1960. Oops. Can't have that muddying the
> waters. What to do? Well adding another data set of real
> temps ("the trick") to the tree ring was one way to fix it.
> Applying a "VERY ARTIFICIAL correction" (in
> briffa_sep98_d.pro) was another. The IPCC in AR4 report just
> cut the tree ring data graph line off past 1960 thereby
> "hiding the decline".
>
> I don't think that anyone needs advanced training to recognize
> the problem with this kind of manipulation. (I have a degree
> in Math, which probably moves me from "mere mortal" to
> "peasant with a pitchfork".) I believe most everyone on this
> list can recognize the problem with those advanced statistical
> techniques. To paraphrase Martin Luther, you don't need to be
> a priest.
>
> In science, the divergence of the tree ring data would have
> led to a re-evaluation of at least the use of that proxy or at
> most the whole climate model. It appears that the warmer
> community has too much invested in the tree ring proxy to do
> either.
>
>
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1235395/SPECIAL-INVESTIGATION-Climate-change-emails-row-deepens--Russians-admit-DID-send-them.html
>
> As for the Darwin station, there is obviously a problem with
> the data set.
> IMHO it is a Red Herring some choose to chase.
>
> Returning to the underlying theme -
>
> Let us review the similarity of Climate Change to a Religious
> Cult.
>
> "Original Sin" = humans pollute the Earth
>
> "The Apocalyptic Vision" = Hurricanes, Ice caps melting, Sea
> level rising, Polar bears dying, cats and dogs living
> together.
>
> "Climate Scientists" = Priesthood
>
> “Climate Change Denier” = Heretic and blasphemer
>
> "Anthropomorphic Global Warming" = Dogma
>
> “Peer review” = Orthodoxy
>
> "Repent and be Saved" = put on sackcloth and ashes, buy your
> carbon credit indulgences from Pope Al Gore and Goldman Sachs
> (Carbon Credit markets were an Enron invention, don'tca know?)
>
> In support of this theme I found this creepy religious tract
> for recruitment into the Climate Change Cult
>
> http://www.futerra.co.uk/downloads/Sellthesizzle.pdf
>
>
> William,
>
> If we agree the Expected Value
>
> Ev = Cost of Event x Probability of Event
>
> For example the Lottery pays out about 25 cents on the dollar
>
> Ev = $1.00 x 0.25 = 25 cents
>
> What is the expected value calculation for AGW?
> What are the cites to the "peer reviewed" journal articles?
> (peer review seems to be the the new mantra)
>
> Extra credit.
> What is the "ideal global temperature"?
> (peer reviewed, of course)
>
> You seem to argue for adding a Fear term (The Apocalyptic
> Vision) to the equation
>
> Ev = (Cost^Fear) x (Probability) where Fear > 1
>
> Now we are talking "hockey stick" graphs.
> But it's not math or science, it's emotional manipulation.
>
> Besides it violates rule 1 of "The Rules of the Game"
>
> http://www.futerra.co.uk/downloads/RulesOfTheGame.pdf
>
> Thank you for playing.
>
> I know I am preaching against the choir.
>
> --
> doug mcnash
>
>
> ---- Jim Kinney <jim.kinney at gmail.com> wrote:
> > A blog post from The Economist is quite good at pointing out
> the fact that
> > "mere mortals" can't do the statistics it takes to make the
> raw data make
> > sense over a longer period than a few years or decades.
> >
> >
> http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2009/12/trust_scientists
> >
> > It also points out that "cherry picking" one data set to
> "prove" the "fraud"
> > of AGW is just a waste of everyone's time.
> >
> > On Thu, Dec 10, 2009 at 11:00 AM, William Fragakis
> <william at fragakis.com>wrote:
> >
> > > No worries, Doug. We can put all those people where there
> were once
> > > glaciers.
> > >
> > >
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
> > >
> > > Malthus may not be at work in your neighborhood but he's
> been definitely
> > > busy in some parts of Africa. You might want to read up on
> some of the
> > > social issues (specifically monstrous overcrowding and
> lack of farmland)
> > > that led to the Rwanda genocide.
> > >
> > > And thanks to those links to the peer reviewed journals,
> Time and
> > > Newsweek.
> > > Time includes this quote "
> > > "Some scientists like Donald Oilman, chief of the National
> Weather
> > > Service's long-range-prediction group, think that the
> cooling trend may
> > > be only temporary. "
> > >
> > > Which may well be why the article's title includes a
> question mark. What
> > > that article does not address is increasing CO2 levels
> which is the
> > > cause of concern among many. (or if it did, I missed it.)
> > >
> > > But, I admit, I'm not a scientist by education but rather
> an economist
> > > where we learn concepts such as expected value. And as Jim
> K. points
> > > out, this again, is what concerns many of us. AGW may well
> be turn out
> > > not to be climatically significant. However, the cost to
> future
> > > generations if it is, may well be catastrophic, not as
> portrayed in the
> > > movies, but the grinding real-life scenario of famine,
> war, etc. (Again,
> > > see Rwanda.)
> > >
> > > By analogy, the probability in any one year of an asteroid
> of
> > > significant size hitting earth is remote. You are better
> off, I'd guess,
> > > buying a powerball ticket. But if one does hit, the
> consequences are
> > > enormous. That's why we devote money to trying to figure
> out what to do
> > > if we spot one coming.
> > >
> > > You may be willing to gamble on the welfare of future
> generations that
> > > AGW is a myth but for many of us, the expected value is
> much too great
> > > even if you assume the probabilities small.
> > >
> > > Lastly, an old saw in the markets is that trees don't grow
> to the sky.
> > > Just because Malthus hasn't been right, yet, doesn't mean
> he won't be.
> > > Again, don't assume you'll see the effect universally but
> locally.*
> > > There are many parts of the world today that struggle to
> feed
> > > themselves. In the rest of the world, we operate on a fine
> line of
> > > feeding everyone assuming everything goes to plan. I'd not
> want to see
> > > the effects if an Indonesian volcano gave us another year
> without summer
> > > as happened in the early 1800s.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > > William
> > >
> > > *quoting your wikipedia article on Malthusian Catastrophe:
> > > The Malthusian catastrophe appears to have been
> temporarily averted in
> > > Spain, although the Neo-Malthusian theory argues that the
> situation is
> > > only temporary; on the other hand, a significant part of
> population of
> > > Nigeria lives near subsistence levels.
> > >
> > > David Pimentel and Ron Nielsen, working independently,
> determined that
> > > the human population as a whole has passed the numerical
> point where all
> > > can live in comfort, and that we have entered a stage
> where many of the
> > > world's citizens and future generations are trapped in
> misery.[7] There
> > > is evidence that a catastrophe is underway as of at least
> the 1990s; for
> > > example, by the year 2000, children in developing
> countries were dying
> > > at the rate of approximately 11,000,000 per annum from
> strictly
> > > preventable diseases.[8][9] This data suggests that by the
> standard of
> > > misery, the catastrophe is underway. The term 'misery' can
> generally be
> > > construed as: high infant mortality, low standards of
> sanitation,
> > > malnutrition, inadequate drinking water, widespread
> diseases, war, and
> > > political unrest.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Thu, 2009-12-10 at 09:58 -0500, Doug McNash wrote:
> > > > The sky is falling, the sky is falling....
> > > >
> > > > I thought the consensus is that we are heading towards
> an ice age.
> > > >
> > > > "Science: Another Ice Age?" Time June 24, 1974
> > > >
> http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html
> > > >
> > > > "The Cooling World" Newsweek, April 28, 1975
> > > > http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm
> > > >
> > > > Reminds me of another fairy tale - Goldilocks.
> > > >
> > > > The Malthusian Catastrophe (population explosion) also
> has not occurred
> > > yet even though it keeps getting revised.
> > > >
> > > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe
> > > >
> > > > As for the rest of your screed, I would suggest you
> should double up on
> > > your meds!
> > > >
> > > > (Head down - headed for my bunker now - where I will
> rape the planet and
> > > no one will hear it scream)
> > > >
> > > > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4XhhTF7vRM
> > > >
> > > > Peace on Earth, Purity of Essence
> > > > --
> > > > doug mcnash
> > > >
> > > > ---- aaron <aaron at pd.org> wrote:
> > > > > The ongoing exchange on Climate Change has been
> amusing and very
> > > > > revealing about the incredible strengths of scientific
> method and
> > > > > peer review. It has reinforced my certainty that this
> is a problem
> > > > > that could affect the survival of our species and is
> something we
> > > > > should clearly be addressing with heavy investments in
> research
> > > > > and potential sustainable solutions.
> > > > >
> > > > > The simple, well documented reality is that the ratios
> of greenhouse
> > > > > gasses in the atmosphere are escalating rapidly due to
> the activities
> > > > > of human beings and their use of fossil fuels.
> Increasing greenhouse
> > > > > gasses will inevitably raise planetary temperature.
> The rate of human
> > > > > population growth is also out of control and continues
> to escalate,
> > > > > so the damage can only get worse from here. Solutions
> for stemming
> > > > > the increase of human population and demand for
> energy, as well as
> > > > > for converting to less toxic and more renewable energy
> sources, will
> > > > > need to happen in tandem if we are to avert disastrous
> consequences.
> > > > >
> > > > > The discussion also leaves me in awe that so many
> normally rational
> > > > > people can be so easily manipulated by the corporate
> welfare state
> > > > > propaganda machine and whipped into an extremist,
> rabid and even
> > > > > suicidal frenzy of denial on this kind of issue. The
> hate zombies
> > > > > serve their blood sucking overlords well, assuring
> that the glutinous,
> > > > > greed driven, unsustainable exploitation of the
> planet's resources and
> > > > > the rape of the compliant masses by the ultra pig
> elite will
> > > > > continue unabated until it all comes crashing down on
> us (but not
> > > > > them) in massive global catastrophes. The "Cap and
> Trade"
> > > > > delusion is a great example of the level of suicidal
> denial that
> > > > > the hate zombies will buy into -- a corporapist scheme
> to provide
> > > > > the biggest of the ultra pigs with payola permits to
> poison the
> > > > > world's populace without any accountability or
> consequence --
> > > > > yeah, sure, that's a GREAT deal for all us common
> folk!
> > > > >
> > > > > The article linked below attempts to explain the
> psychology of
> > > > > this self delusion and denial, but it still doesn't
> forgive the
> > > > > shear suicidal stupidity of it. Especially knowing
> that most of
> > > > > these screaming hate the government (and thus, hate
> yourself)
> > > > > denial freaks are the same clan of rabid zombies that
> have sat in
> > > > > spineless silence through decades of massive deficit
> tax increases
> > > > > imposed on them to fund insane and continual
> escalations of the
> > > > > U.S. war and torture death machine industries. They
> can magically
> > > > > rationalize that it's OK to massively bloat and
> militarize the
> > > > > government and destroy civil rights and democracy and
> massively
> > > > > inflate the tax burden on us, our children and our
> children's
> > > > > children so long as it's being done to support
> imperialist invasions
> > > > > and occupations of foreign lands where we murder the
> brown people
> > > > > there, steal their nation's resources, and let the
> ultra pigs claim
> > > > > ownership of it all.
> > > > >
> > > > > <http://tinyurl.com/psychofdenial>
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > _______________________________________________
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> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > --
> > James P. Kinney III
> > Actively in pursuit of Life, Liberty and Happiness
>
>
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________
As long as you derive inner help and comfort from anything, keep it.
-- Mahatma Gandhi
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