[ale] [OT] Psychology of Denial about Climate Change

[William Fragakis]

No worries, Doug. We can put all those people where there were once
glaciers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850

Malthus may not be at work in your neighborhood but he's been definitely
busy in some parts of Africa. You might want to read up on some of the
social issues (specifically monstrous overcrowding and lack of farmland)
that led to the Rwanda genocide. 

And thanks to those links to the peer reviewed journals, Time and
Newsweek. 
Time includes this quote "
"Some scientists like Donald Oilman, chief of the National Weather
Service's long-range-prediction group, think that the cooling trend may
be only temporary. "

Which may well be why the article's title includes a question mark. What
that article does not address is increasing CO2 levels which is the
cause of concern among many. (or if it did, I missed it.)

But, I admit, I'm not a scientist by education but rather an economist
where we learn concepts such as expected value. And as Jim K. points
out, this again, is what concerns many of us. AGW may well be turn out
not to be climatically significant. However, the cost to future
generations if it is, may well be catastrophic, not as portrayed in the
movies, but the grinding real-life scenario of famine, war, etc. (Again,
see Rwanda.)

By analogy, the probability in any one year of an asteroid of
significant size hitting earth is remote. You are better off, I'd guess,
buying a powerball ticket. But if one does hit, the consequences are
enormous. That's why we devote money to trying to figure out what to do
if we spot one coming.

You may be willing to gamble on the welfare of future generations that
AGW is a myth but for many of us, the expected value is much too great
even if you assume the probabilities small. 

Lastly, an old saw in the markets is that trees don't grow to the sky.
Just because Malthus hasn't been right, yet, doesn't mean he won't be.
Again, don't assume you'll see the effect universally but locally.*
There are many parts of the world today that struggle to feed
themselves. In the rest of the world, we operate on a fine line of
feeding everyone assuming everything goes to plan. I'd not want to see
the effects if an Indonesian volcano gave us another year without summer
as happened in the early 1800s.

Regards,
William

*quoting your wikipedia article on Malthusian Catastrophe:
The Malthusian catastrophe appears to have been temporarily averted in
Spain, although the Neo-Malthusian theory argues that the situation is
only temporary; on the other hand, a significant part of population of
Nigeria lives near subsistence levels.

David Pimentel and Ron Nielsen, working independently, determined that
the human population as a whole has passed the numerical point where all
can live in comfort, and that we have entered a stage where many of the
world's citizens and future generations are trapped in misery.[7] There
is evidence that a catastrophe is underway as of at least the 1990s; for
example, by the year 2000, children in developing countries were dying
at the rate of approximately 11,000,000 per annum from strictly
preventable diseases.[8][9] This data suggests that by the standard of
misery, the catastrophe is underway. The term 'misery' can generally be
construed as: high infant mortality, low standards of sanitation,
malnutrition, inadequate drinking water, widespread diseases, war, and
political unrest.



On Thu, 2009-12-10 at 09:58 -0500, Doug McNash wrote:
> The sky is falling, the sky is falling....
> 
> I thought the consensus is that we are heading towards an ice age.
> 
> "Science: Another Ice Age?" Time  June 24, 1974
>     http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html
> 
> "The Cooling World" Newsweek, April 28, 1975 
>     http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm
> 
> Reminds me of another fairy tale - Goldilocks.
> 
> The Malthusian Catastrophe (population explosion) also has not occurred yet even though it keeps getting revised.
> 
>     http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe
> 
> As for the rest of your screed, I would suggest you should double up on your meds!
> 
> (Head down - headed for my bunker now - where I will rape the planet and no one will hear it scream)
> 
>     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4XhhTF7vRM
> 
> Peace on Earth, Purity of Essence
> --
> doug mcnash
> 
> ---- aaron <aaron at pd.org> wrote: 
> > The ongoing exchange on Climate Change has been amusing and very
> > revealing about the incredible strengths of scientific method and
> > peer review.  It has reinforced my certainty that this is a problem
> > that could affect the survival of our species and is something we
> > should clearly be addressing with heavy investments in research
> > and potential sustainable solutions.
> > 
> > The simple, well documented reality is that the ratios of greenhouse
> > gasses in the atmosphere are escalating rapidly due to the activities
> > of human beings and their use of fossil fuels. Increasing greenhouse
> > gasses will inevitably raise planetary temperature. The rate of human
> > population growth is also out of control and continues to escalate,
> > so the damage can only get worse from here. Solutions for stemming
> > the increase of human population and demand for energy, as well as
> > for converting to less toxic and more renewable energy sources, will
> > need to happen in tandem if we are to avert disastrous consequences.
> > 
> > The discussion also leaves me in awe that so many normally rational
> > people can be so easily manipulated by the corporate welfare state
> > propaganda machine and whipped into an extremist, rabid and even
> > suicidal frenzy of denial on this kind of issue.  The hate zombies
> > serve their blood sucking overlords well, assuring that the glutinous,
> > greed driven, unsustainable exploitation of the planet's resources and
> > the rape of the compliant masses by the ultra pig elite will
> > continue unabated until it all comes crashing down on us (but not
> > them) in massive global catastrophes.  The "Cap and Trade"
> > delusion is a great example of the level of suicidal denial that
> > the hate zombies will buy into -- a corporapist scheme to provide
> > the biggest of the ultra pigs with payola permits to poison the
> > world's populace without any accountability or consequence --
> > yeah, sure, that's a GREAT deal for all us common folk!
> > 
> > The article linked below attempts to explain the psychology of
> > this self delusion and denial, but it still doesn't forgive the
> > shear suicidal stupidity of it. Especially knowing that most of
> > these screaming hate the government (and thus, hate yourself)
> > denial freaks are the same clan of rabid zombies that have sat in
> > spineless silence through decades of massive deficit tax increases
> > imposed on them to fund insane and continual escalations of the
> > U.S. war and torture death machine industries. They can magically
> > rationalize that it's OK to massively bloat and militarize the
> > government and destroy civil rights and democracy and massively
> > inflate the tax burden on us, our children and our children's
> > children so long as it's being done to support imperialist invasions
> > and occupations of foreign lands where we murder the brown people
> > there, steal their nation's resources, and let the ultra pigs claim
> > ownership of it all.
> > 
> > <http://tinyurl.com/psychofdenial>
> > 
> > 
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