As a point of clarification, my 'amen!' and comments were to the application of the religious framework to the alarmists message rather than the allegation of fraud.<br>GC<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Dec 14, 2009 at 3:53 PM, Greg Freemyer <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:greg.freemyer@gmail.com">greg.freemyer@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;"><div class="im">On Mon, Dec 14, 2009 at 11:21 AM, Doug McNash <<a href="mailto:dmcnash@charter.net">dmcnash@charter.net</a>> wrote:<br>
</div><div class="im">> Jim,<br>
><br>
> I thought you declared and end to this?<br>
> Nevertheless I will still play as long as there is no objection from the list.<br>
> ALE has a long tradition of OT threads, most of which I have found educational and amusing in the past.<br>
><br>
> So far as far as I have been able determine, the only provable fraud has been been with the handling of the Briffa tree ring data. The tree ring measurements are used as a proxy for temperature for the recent period before the invention of the thermometer. But this proxy shows a decrease in global temperature since 1960.<br>
<br>
<br>
</div>As I understand it, the issue is more complex than that and I don't<br>
think it rises to the level of "fraud".<br>
<br>
The tree ring analysis from Briffa in the early 90's originally<br>
apparently matched the temp record from 1850-1990 fairly well, but it<br>
also showed the temps being even higher during the MWP than during the<br>
1990's.<br>
<br>
(MWP - Medieval Warming Period about 1000 years ago. When Greenland<br>
was actively being farmed, etc.)<br>
<br>
Apparently the emails show a discussion led by Dr. Jones that<br>
temperatures being that high during the MWP is in disagreement with<br>
either other data, or with CRU preconceived ideas.<br>
<br>
(The emails I have read are not clear on why Dr. Jones felt the MWP<br>
was cooler than today, just that the MWP being warmer than today<br>
seemed wrong to Dr. Jones.)<br>
<br>
Apparently based on Dr. Jones feedback Briffa went back and adjusted<br>
the tree ring analysis process to get the MWP era into what Dr. Jones<br>
felt was a more appropriate temp range.<br>
<br>
(That may have been perfectly reasonable if other trusted temperature<br>
proxies showed the MWP to be cooler than today. More investigation<br>
into why the tree ring analysis was modified will surely be<br>
forthcoming as climategate proceeds.).<br>
<br>
The scientific issue was that after Briffa modified the process for<br>
interpreting tree rings to "properly" address the MWP, it caused a<br>
divergence in the post 1960 temps.<br>
<br>
The solution the CRU came up with 10+ years ago was to simply drop the<br>
tree ring analysis at 1960 and graft on land based thermometer based<br>
temperatures. The end result was the infamous hockey stick of<br>
temperatures covering the last 1000 years that was published in 1998<br>
or so. That hockey stick chart has been widely used/referenced and<br>
was part of the IPCC report in the early 2000's.<br>
<br>
OTOH, It was dropped from the 2007 summary report. I believe because<br>
further analysis showed the modified Briffa series was not as accurate<br>
as it was originally believed to be.<br>
<br>
Specifically if you look at the "IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers"<br>
report <<a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf</a>><br>
you can see that a chart showing temps for the last 1000 years is<br>
simply no longer provided.<br>
<br>
I assume that leads most readers (politicians) to assume the old<br>
hockey stick is still valid.<br>
<font color="#888888"><br>
Greg<br>
</font><div><div></div><div class="h5"><br>
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