A small correction/amendment/clarification: There's no water war between Israelis and Palestinians. Israel is simply robbing Palestine from its water, pumping it on Paletinian land and redirecting it to Israel. If the Palestinians had the power to fight it' they would have already. But they are surrounded by Israel and have no choice. <br>
<br clear="all">-- Asher <br>
<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Dec 10, 2009 at 12:02 PM, Jim Kinney <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jim.kinney@gmail.com">jim.kinney@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">
William,<br><br>Very well put. It is a choice of risking really, terrifying times vs expending huge amounts of resources in both cash and human effort. The CIA has noted that bad local economics has a tremendous impact on global security as locals with no other activity become violent and join up. In the regions where this is happening, the local agriculture is failing mostly due to a changing climate. This sharpens the line between the haves and the have nots. <br>
<br>Sociologists can't say at what point a person will choose violence as a last resort given a set of conditions. But that can say that it will happen at some point. <br><br>Can we as a species afford to become locked in a truly global conflict because of water? It's currently underway in many parts of the world. The tri-state water wars surrounding Atlanta pale in comparison to what is about to happen in Israel/Palestine as the only water supply for Palestine is draining faster than it can refill from natural source and it's being leaked into from the sewage tanks that can't be replaced. Then there's Mongolias "Ninja Miners" whose gold mining ex-urbanites are destroying the worlds largest fresh water reservoir across the border in Russia. Africa has so many water issues it's nearly a full time task to keep up with them all. It is human intrusion on the environment that is impacting all of these issues. Africa is the one area where it is fairly understood to be caused by climate change that has it's roots in another area of the world. And African drought is impacting the USA. Look at the rise of African immigrants in the past 10 years. There is also a rise in bronchial infections and asthma as well as a noted coral reef decline that has been linked to the evaporation of Lake Chad and the subsequent airborne exposure to a particular fungus spore from the dried lake bed.<br>
<br>The old boy scout motto still holds true: Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Compared to cost of fighting wars on all continents, scaling back the consumption of natural resources is a small price to pay for world worth living in.<br>
<br>Besides, MRE's are still crappy to eat anywhere but camping.<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Dec 10, 2009 at 11:00 AM, William Fragakis <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:william@fragakis.com" target="_blank">william@fragakis.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">No worries, Doug. We can put all those people where there were once<br>
glaciers.<br>
<br>
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850</a><br>
<br>
Malthus may not be at work in your neighborhood but he's been definitely<br>
busy in some parts of Africa. You might want to read up on some of the<br>
social issues (specifically monstrous overcrowding and lack of farmland)<br>
that led to the Rwanda genocide.<br>
<br>
And thanks to those links to the peer reviewed journals, Time and<br>
Newsweek.<br>
Time includes this quote "<br>
"Some scientists like Donald Oilman, chief of the National Weather<br>
Service's long-range-prediction group, think that the cooling trend may<br>
be only temporary. "<br>
<br>
Which may well be why the article's title includes a question mark. What<br>
that article does not address is increasing CO2 levels which is the<br>
cause of concern among many. (or if it did, I missed it.)<br>
<br>
But, I admit, I'm not a scientist by education but rather an economist<br>
where we learn concepts such as expected value. And as Jim K. points<br>
out, this again, is what concerns many of us. AGW may well be turn out<br>
not to be climatically significant. However, the cost to future<br>
generations if it is, may well be catastrophic, not as portrayed in the<br>
movies, but the grinding real-life scenario of famine, war, etc. (Again,<br>
see Rwanda.)<br>
<br>
By analogy, the probability in any one year of an asteroid of<br>
significant size hitting earth is remote. You are better off, I'd guess,<br>
buying a powerball ticket. But if one does hit, the consequences are<br>
enormous. That's why we devote money to trying to figure out what to do<br>
if we spot one coming.<br>
<br>
You may be willing to gamble on the welfare of future generations that<br>
AGW is a myth but for many of us, the expected value is much too great<br>
even if you assume the probabilities small.<br>
<br>
Lastly, an old saw in the markets is that trees don't grow to the sky.<br>
Just because Malthus hasn't been right, yet, doesn't mean he won't be.<br>
Again, don't assume you'll see the effect universally but locally.*<br>
There are many parts of the world today that struggle to feed<br>
themselves. In the rest of the world, we operate on a fine line of<br>
feeding everyone assuming everything goes to plan. I'd not want to see<br>
the effects if an Indonesian volcano gave us another year without summer<br>
as happened in the early 1800s.<br>
<br>
Regards,<br>
William<br>
<br>
*quoting your wikipedia article on Malthusian Catastrophe:<br>
The Malthusian catastrophe appears to have been temporarily averted in<br>
Spain, although the Neo-Malthusian theory argues that the situation is<br>
only temporary; on the other hand, a significant part of population of<br>
Nigeria lives near subsistence levels.<br>
<br>
David Pimentel and Ron Nielsen, working independently, determined that<br>
the human population as a whole has passed the numerical point where all<br>
can live in comfort, and that we have entered a stage where many of the<br>
world's citizens and future generations are trapped in misery.[7] There<br>
is evidence that a catastrophe is underway as of at least the 1990s; for<br>
example, by the year 2000, children in developing countries were dying<br>
at the rate of approximately 11,000,000 per annum from strictly<br>
preventable diseases.[8][9] This data suggests that by the standard of<br>
misery, the catastrophe is underway. The term 'misery' can generally be<br>
construed as: high infant mortality, low standards of sanitation,<br>
malnutrition, inadequate drinking water, widespread diseases, war, and<br>
political unrest.<br>
<div><div></div><div><br>
<br>
<br>
On Thu, 2009-12-10 at 09:58 -0500, Doug McNash wrote:<br>
> The sky is falling, the sky is falling....<br>
><br>
> I thought the consensus is that we are heading towards an ice age.<br>
><br>
> "Science: Another Ice Age?" Time June 24, 1974<br>
> <a href="http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html" target="_blank">http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html</a><br>
><br>
> "The Cooling World" Newsweek, April 28, 1975<br>
> <a href="http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm" target="_blank">http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm</a><br>
><br>
> Reminds me of another fairy tale - Goldilocks.<br>
><br>
> The Malthusian Catastrophe (population explosion) also has not occurred yet even though it keeps getting revised.<br>
><br>
> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe</a><br>
><br>
> As for the rest of your screed, I would suggest you should double up on your meds!<br>
><br>
> (Head down - headed for my bunker now - where I will rape the planet and no one will hear it scream)<br>
><br>
> <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4XhhTF7vRM" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4XhhTF7vRM</a><br>
><br>
> Peace on Earth, Purity of Essence<br>
> --<br>
> doug mcnash<br>
><br>
> ---- aaron <<a href="mailto:aaron@pd.org" target="_blank">aaron@pd.org</a>> wrote:<br>
> > The ongoing exchange on Climate Change has been amusing and very<br>
> > revealing about the incredible strengths of scientific method and<br>
> > peer review. It has reinforced my certainty that this is a problem<br>
> > that could affect the survival of our species and is something we<br>
> > should clearly be addressing with heavy investments in research<br>
> > and potential sustainable solutions.<br>
> ><br>
> > The simple, well documented reality is that the ratios of greenhouse<br>
> > gasses in the atmosphere are escalating rapidly due to the activities<br>
> > of human beings and their use of fossil fuels. Increasing greenhouse<br>
> > gasses will inevitably raise planetary temperature. The rate of human<br>
> > population growth is also out of control and continues to escalate,<br>
> > so the damage can only get worse from here. Solutions for stemming<br>
> > the increase of human population and demand for energy, as well as<br>
> > for converting to less toxic and more renewable energy sources, will<br>
> > need to happen in tandem if we are to avert disastrous consequences.<br>
> ><br>
> > The discussion also leaves me in awe that so many normally rational<br>
> > people can be so easily manipulated by the corporate welfare state<br>
> > propaganda machine and whipped into an extremist, rabid and even<br>
> > suicidal frenzy of denial on this kind of issue. The hate zombies<br>
> > serve their blood sucking overlords well, assuring that the glutinous,<br>
> > greed driven, unsustainable exploitation of the planet's resources and<br>
> > the rape of the compliant masses by the ultra pig elite will<br>
> > continue unabated until it all comes crashing down on us (but not<br>
> > them) in massive global catastrophes. The "Cap and Trade"<br>
> > delusion is a great example of the level of suicidal denial that<br>
> > the hate zombies will buy into -- a corporapist scheme to provide<br>
> > the biggest of the ultra pigs with payola permits to poison the<br>
> > world's populace without any accountability or consequence --<br>
> > yeah, sure, that's a GREAT deal for all us common folk!<br>
> ><br>
> > The article linked below attempts to explain the psychology of<br>
> > this self delusion and denial, but it still doesn't forgive the<br>
> > shear suicidal stupidity of it. Especially knowing that most of<br>
> > these screaming hate the government (and thus, hate yourself)<br>
> > denial freaks are the same clan of rabid zombies that have sat in<br>
> > spineless silence through decades of massive deficit tax increases<br>
> > imposed on them to fund insane and continual escalations of the<br>
> > U.S. war and torture death machine industries. They can magically<br>
> > rationalize that it's OK to massively bloat and militarize the<br>
> > government and destroy civil rights and democracy and massively<br>
> > inflate the tax burden on us, our children and our children's<br>
> > children so long as it's being done to support imperialist invasions<br>
> > and occupations of foreign lands where we murder the brown people<br>
> > there, steal their nation's resources, and let the ultra pigs claim<br>
> > ownership of it all.<br>
> ><br>
> > <<a href="http://tinyurl.com/psychofdenial" target="_blank">http://tinyurl.com/psychofdenial</a>><br>
> ><br>
> ><br>
> > _______________________________________________<br>
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</div></div></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br><font color="#888888">-- <br>James P. Kinney III<br>Actively in pursuit of Life, Liberty and Happiness <br><br>
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